swyx's site
The official site of Shawn @swyx Wang, a technologist and recovering finance geek.
I first started compiling "How To Thought Lead" in my notes 5 years ago, at first as an ironic parody and then slowly becoming sincere, and never published it, 1) because I don't know if I ever really nailed it / have a complete picture, 2) I was somewhat worried if I published it then others might diminish the techniques through overuse.
There was a famous Covid era chart that I always struggle to find, showing how hard it is to estimate an S curve while living through it. in the early days it seems that everything is exploding as an exponential and you always get hypey essays about how YOU, YOU DUMB DUMB, DONT UNDERSTAND EXPONENTIALS LET ME EXPLAIN. and then as things hit invisible asymptotes those same loud voices who write viral essays have curiously moved on to other things.
You are of course aware that attention spans are shrinking. YouTube -> Shorts, Instagram Reels, Tiktoks, etc have taken over the world.
